After the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged in the early morning of March 19 (Vietnam time), Brent oil prices rose sharply, breaking through the mark of $111.9 per barrel, while WTI touched $97.81 per barrel (updated to 9:30 a.m. on March 19).
In the midst of the spiral of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, a new economic order is quietly taking shape. The global black gold flow is turning in direction, bringing huge profits to players who know how to seize the opportunity.
The outbreak of tensions between the US, Israel and Iran is dealing a blow to the global logistics supply chain. The focus of attention is now on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but vital maritime corridor that connects the Persian Gulf to huge consumer markets.
According to analysis from Nikkei, under normal conditions, the strait carries about 20 million barrels of oil per day. This is equivalent to 25% of the total oil trade transported by sea worldwide. Notably, about 80% of the crude oil through Hormuz is destined for Asian economies.
The disruption in the above area is causing serious disturbances in oil logistics. Leading exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE depend entirely on this route to get goods internationally. When this "bottleneck" becomes risky, the cost of insurance immediately skyrockets.
As a result, the flow of seaborne oil is held back in the Persian Gulf. For energy-hungry Asian countries such as China, India, Japan and South Korea, the risks are stark. Even a small disruption in supply is enough to inflate the operating costs of refineries and push domestic fuel prices skyrocketing.
As the market focused on Asia's losses, one name suddenly rose to the benefit: Russia. According to Nikkei, the disruption in the Middle East is reshaping the market in the direction of strongly strengthening Moscow's position. The key point that makes the main difference is the geography of the export.
Unlike its Gulf rivals, Russian oil does not pass through the risky Middle East. Shipments from Baltic ports can easily reach the European and Atlantic markets. Meanwhile, Pacific ports in the Far East pump oil directly to Asia. Moscow has rare large export corridors outside the conflict zone.
This safety immediately changes the taste of shoppers. In the past, Japan, India and China have tried to balance energy demand with Western restrictive measures. But now, their priorities have shifted from "diversification" to "ensuring certainty". Russian oil has suddenly become the most reliable option.
This shift also exposes the limits of punitive instruments. The price ceiling of $60 per barrel imposed by the G7 group to squeeze Russia's revenues has almost lost its effect. According to Nikkei, Russian oil is currently trading well above this ceiling. Even buyers are willing to pay an additional "safety of supply fee" higher than Brent oil from 2-8 USD/barrel to ensure goods.
Behind this billion-dollar influx is the spectacular re-emergence of a powerful figure. According to the Wall Street Journal, Etibar Eyyub - the "boss" of Russia's shadow fleet - is operating at full capacity. This 47-year-old man of Azerbaijani origin is likened by oil traders to a real "whale" in the market.
Previously, Eyyub had struggled when sanctions surrounded him. Millions of barrels of oil he controls through "shell" companies have been floating at sea because India has cut imports. However, the Middle East war has turned the tables in just two weeks.
To cool down the global market, Washington was forced to issue a 30-day waiver to India, then extend it to other countries to free up the stranded Russian oil. Refineries in India and China immediately took advantage of the opportunity, processing this supply to replace the oil stuck in the Persian Gulf.
The Wall Street Journal revealed that India has bought more than 30 million barrels of oil in the past half month alone. The majority of these huge transactions were arranged by Eyyub and his network. Holding a third of the 600 Russian tankers globally, he is playing the role of "total offer", settling the output for more than $50 billion of crude oil per year.
Eyyub's journey to seize power is full of the colors of a thrilling financial deal. According to the Wall Street Journal, after Western trading giants withdrew from Russia, Eyyub emerged from the chaos. He gradually eliminated competitors to take control of almost all of Rosneft's exports.
Starting his career at Coral Energy in Dubai, Eyyub quickly built a reputation as an extremely tough negotiator. He defeated his fierce rival Murtaza Lakhani by bidding higher in Moscow auctions. At the same time, he built an extremely close relationship with Russia's senior energy leadership.
From his office in a magnificent tower in Moscow, Eyyub runs his network using 2 private jets. He is constantly moving throughout the Middle East, Africa, and India in search of clients. His empire was constantly expanding, taking over ships operating in Venezuela and participating in Arctic exploration projects.
Thanks to this huge network, Urals oil - Russia's main oil - now trades at near parity with global benchmarks. Before the outbreak of the conflict, the discount rate of this oil used to be squeezed down to nearly 20%. A leader of Reliance Group (India) confirmed that since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, it is buying "as much Russian oil as possible".
According to Business Insider, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia has collected about $10 billion in just two weeks of the conflict. This figure offsets up to 10% of Moscow's projected oil trade deficit in 2026.
Although Russia's oil and gas revenues in the first two months of the year only reached $10.2 billion per month, a sharp decline over the same period, the current price increase is changing the situation. The total budget revenue of $58.7 billion in this period shows that the Russian economy still maintains significant resilience to international pressures.
Meanwhile, according to Nikkei, oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel are inflating inflationary pressures in the West. People and businesses in major economies have to bear the burden of increasingly expensive energy costs.
In the latest development, refiners in India and China are increasing their purchases of Russian oil to compensate for supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf region, indicating that energy trade flows are shifting markedly in Moscow's favor.
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